UK land use projections and the implications for climate change mitigation and adaptation

The Committee on Climate Change (CCC) is an independent, statutory body established under the 2008 Climate Change Act. The CCC and Adaptation Sub-Committee (ASC) are tasked with: • Providing advice to the UK Government and Devolved Administrations on emissions targets and the current and future risks to the country from climate change; and • Reporting to Parliament on progress made in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and preparing for climate change. Land use is relevant to the CCC and ASC’s advice and analysis on both reducing greenhouse gases (mitigation) and preparing for climate change (adaptation) and covers a number of different policy areas, strands of academic study and evidence sources. In our 2015 progress report, we identified agriculture and the natural environment as two of several areas where there are co-benefits and trade-offs between mitigation and adaptation. For example, some agricultural practices can exacerbate flood risk or degrade soils. On the other hand measures aimed at reducing agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions such as improved use of inorganic fertiliser can lead to improvements in soil and water quality. This project aims to review the evidence-base and relevant literature to develop our understanding of how land is currently used in the UK, and the implications of any future changes for climate change mitigation and adaptation. In order to do this, we need to understand current metrics of land use as well as indicators of the environmental quality of land. We also need to understand the key drivers that affect land use decision-making both at the local and national levels, and how climate mitigation and adaptation might impact on these drivers.