ecm_11487 - Reference Class Forecasting

The creation of a Reference Class Forecast (RCF) by Oxford Global Projects (OGP) will provide the Synergy Programme with an outside view on the likely outcome of the programme, based on actual outcomes of similar projects. An RCF is recommended by the Infrastructure and Projects Authority (IPA) and in Treasury's Greenbook as it can reduce bias and support the development of a realistic business case to underpin major investment decisions. The proposed works consist of 2 work streams: 1. The creation of program reference class based on past similar programs. 2. The break-down of program and mapping of individual components.