Provision of Rail Class Forecasting

The National Infrastructure Commission was asked by Government to undertake an assessment of the rail needs in the Midlands and North of the UK. This includes considering the sequencing of, integration of and investment in major UK rail schemes, including High-Speed 2 Phase 2b, Northern Powerhouse Rail, Midlands Rail Engine, and electrification of key rail routes. As part of this assessment, the Commission needs to develop a clear, independent picture of the costs of these schemes. Rail projects have a vast history of cost overruns, and developing an understanding of the true costs, accounting for optimism bias, is critical.